Catchment properties,function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?          下载免费PDF全文

Fabrizio Fenicia  Dmitri Kavetski  Hubert H. G. Savenije  Martyn P. Clark  Gerrit Schoups  Laurent Pfister  Jim Freer 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2451-2467

This study investigates the possible correspondence between catchment structure, as represented by perceptual hydrological models developed from fieldwork investigations, and mathematical model structures, selected on the basis of reproducing observed catchment hydrographs. Three Luxembourgish headwater catchments are considered, where previous fieldwork suggested distinct flow‐generating mechanisms and hydrological dynamics. A set of lumped conceptual model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following parameter calibration, the model performance is examined in terms of predictive accuracy, quantification of uncertainty, and the ability to reproduce the flow–duration curve signature. Our key research question is whether differences in the performance of the conceptual model structures can be interpreted based on the dominant catchment processes suggested from fieldwork investigations. For example, we propose that the permeable bedrock and the presence of multiple aquifers in the Huewelerbach catchment may explain the superior performance of model structures with storage elements connected in parallel. Conversely, model structures with serial connections perform better in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments, which are characterized by impermeable bedrock and dominated by lateral flow. The presence of threshold dynamics in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments may favour nonlinear models, while the smoother dynamics of the larger Huewelerbach catchment were suitably reproduced by linear models. It is also shown how hydrologically distinct processes can be effectively described by the same mathematical model components. Major research questions are reviewed, including the correspondence between hydrological processes at different levels of scale and how best to synthesize the experimentalist's and modeller's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

1D velocity structure of the Po River plain (Northern Italy) assessed by combining strong motion and ambient noise data     

Giuliano Milana  Paola Bordoni  Fabrizio Cara  Giuseppe Di Giulio  Salomon Hailemikael  Antonio Rovelli 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2195-2209

Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source.  相似文献   

Estimation procedures for exchangeable Marshall copulas with hydrological application   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Fabrizio Durante  Ostap Okhrin 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):205-226

Complex phenomena in environmental sciences can be conveniently represented by several inter-dependent random variables. In order to describe such situations, copula-based models have been studied during the last year. In this paper, we consider a novel family of bivariate copulas, called exchangeable Marshall copulas. Such copulas describe both positive and (upper) tail association between random variables. Specifically, inference procedures for the family of exchangeable Marshall copulas are introduced, based on the estimation of their (univariate) generator. Moreover, the performance of the proposed methodologies is shown in a simulation study. Finally, an illustration describes how the proposed procedures can be useful in a hydrological application.  相似文献   

Numerical and experimental evaluation of site effects at ridges characterized by complex geological setting     

Alessandro Pagliaroli  Alessandra Avalle  Emanuela Falcucci  Stefano Gori  Fabrizio Galadini 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(10):2841-2865

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Love wave tomography in Italy from seismic ambient noise          下载免费PDF全文

Hongyi Li  Fabrizio Bernardi  Alberto Michelini 《地震科学（英文版）》2010,23(5):487-495

We estimate Love wave empirical Green's functions from cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise to study the crust and uppermost mantle structure in Italy.Transverse-component ambient noise data from October 2005 through March 2007 recorded at 114 seismic stations from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) national broadband network,the Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network (MedNet) and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) yield more than 2 000 Love wave group velocity measurements using the multiple-filter analysis technique.In the short period band (5-20 s),the cross-correlations show clearly one-sided asymmetric feature due to non-uniform noise distribution and high local activities,and in the long period band (20 s) this feature becomes weak owing to more diffusive noise distribution.Based on these measurements,Love wave group velocity dispersion maps in the 8-34 s period band are constructed,then the SH wave velocity structures from the Love wave dispersions are inverted.The final results obtained from Love wave data are overall in good agreement with those from Rayleigh waves.Both Love and Rayleigh wave inversions all reveal that the Po plain basin is resolved with low velocity at shallow depth,and the Tyrrhenian sea is characterized with higher velocity below 8 km due to its thin oceanic crust.  相似文献   

Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete girder bridges using Bayesian belief network          下载免费PDF全文

Paolo Franchin  Alessio Lupoi  Fabrizio Noto  Solomon Tesfamariam 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(1):29-44

Infrastructure owners and operators, or governmental agencies, need rapid screening tools to prioritize detailed risk assessment and retrofit resources allocation. This paper provides one such tool, for use by highway administrations, based on Bayesian belief network (BBN) and aimed at replacing so‐called generic or typological seismic fragility functions for reinforced concrete girder bridges. Resources for detailed assessments should be allocated to bridges with highest consequence of damage, for which site hazard, bridge fragility, and traffic data are needed. The proposed BBN based model is used to quantify seismic fragility of bridges based on data that can be obtained by visual inspection and engineering drawings. Results show that the predicted fragilities are of sufficient accuracy for establishing relative ranking and prioritizing. While the actual data and seismic hazard employed to train the network (establishing conditional probability tables) refer to the Italian bridge stock, the network structure and engineering judgment can easily be adopted for bridges in different geographical locations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of total grain size distribution of the climactic phase of a long-lasting eruption: the example of the 2008–2013 Chaitén eruption     

Fabrizio Alfano  Costanza Bonadonna  Sebastian Watt  Chuck Connor  Alain Volentik  David M. Pyle 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(7):46

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Syn-thrust deformation across a transverse zone: the Grem–Vedra fault system (central Southern Alps, N Italy)     

Andrea Zanchi  Paolo D’Adda  Stefano Zanchetta  Fabrizio Berra 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2012,105(1):19-38

The lateral continuity of the E?CW trending thrust sheets developed within the Lower to Middle Triassic cover of the central Southern Alps (Orobic belt) is disturbed by the occurrence of several N?CS trending transverse zones, such as the poorly known Grem?CVedra Transverse Zone (GVTZ). The GVTZ developed during the emplacement of the up to six S-verging thrust sheets consisting of Lower to Middle Triassic units, occurring immediately south of the Orobic Anticlines. The transverse zone, active during thrust emplacement related to the early Alpine compressions which pre-date the Adamello intrusion, includes three major vertical shear zones, the Grem, Pezzel and Zuccone faults. The major structure of the transverse zone is the dextral Grem fault, forming a deep lateral ramp between thrust sheets 3 and 5. A similar evolution also occurred along the Zuccone and Pezzel faults, which show a left-lateral displacement of syn-thrust folds. The Grem fault was later reactivated as an oblique tear fault during the emplacement of the Orobic Anticlines, due to back-thrusting along out-of-sequence thrust surfaces (Clusone fault). Transpressional deformations along the fault zone are recorded by the rotation of major syn-thrust folds, which also suggest a horizontal offset close to 0.5?km. Records of the first stage of evolution of the Grem fault are better preserved along its northern segment, and structural relationships suggest that it propagated southward and downward in the growing thrust stack. The study of the meso and megascopic structures developed along the GVTZ constrains the evolution of the transverse zone, illustrating the complex deformational phenomena occurring in a transpressional regime. The GVTZ probably reflects the existence of pre-existing tectonic lineaments with a similar orientation. Evidence of pre-existing structures are not preserved in the exposed units, nevertheless the N?CS extensional fault systems that characterize the Norian to Jurassic rifting history of the Lombardian basin are valid candidates.  相似文献   

Seismic response of L��Aquila downtown from comparison between 2D synthetics spectral ratios of SH, P-SV and Rayleigh waves and observations of the 2009 earthquake sequence     

Paola Bordoni  John Haines  Giuliano Milana  Sandro Marcucci  Fabrizio Cara  Giuseppe Di Giulio 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(3):761-781

This is the first part of a study on the seismic response of the L’Aquila city using 2D simulation and experimental data. We have studied two velocity-depth models with the aim of outlining the behavior of a velocity reversal in the top layer, which is associated with the stiff Brecce de L’Aquila unit (BrA). In this setting, the SMTH model is topped by a layer with about 2:1 impedance contrast with the underlying layer while the NORV model has no velocity reversal. We have simulated the propagation of SH and P-SV wavefields in the range 0–10 Hz for incidence 0°–90°. Earthquake spectral ratios of the horizontal and vertical components at six sites in L’Aquila downtown are compared to corresponding synthetics spectral ratios. The vertical component of P-SV synthetics enables us to investigate a remarkable amplification effect seen in the vertical component of the recorded strong motion. Sites AQ04 and AQ05 are best matched by synthetics from the NORV model while FAQ5 and AQ06 have a better match with synthetics spectral ratios from the SMTH model. All simulations show this behavior systematically, with horizontal and near-horizontal incident waves predicting the overall pattern of matches more clearly than vertical and near-vertical incidence. The model inferences are in agreement with new geological data reporting lateral passages in the top layer from the stiff BrA to softer sediments. Matches are good in terms of frequency of the first amplification peak and of spectral amplitude: the horizontal components have spectral ratio peaks predominantly at 0.5 Hz in the simulations and at 0.7 Hz in the data, both with amplitudes of 4, while the vertical component spectral ratios reach values of 6 at frequencies of about 1 Hz in both data and simulations. The vertical component spectral ratios are very well matched using Rayleigh waves with incidence at 90°. The NORV model without the velocity reversal predicts spectral ratio peaks for the horizontal components at frequencies up to 6 Hz. The reversal of velocity acts as a low-pass frequency filter on the horizontal components reducing the amplification effect of the sediment filled valley.  相似文献   

HTP2₁/c–C2/c phase transition and kinetics of Fe²⁺–Mg order–disorder of an Fe-poor pigeonite: implications for the cooling history of ureilites     

Matteo Alvaro  Fernando Cámara  M. Chiara Domeneghetti  Fabrizio Nestola  Vittorio Tazzoli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,162(3):599-613

A natural Ca-poor pigeonite (Wo₆En₇₆Fs₁₈) from the ureilite meteorite sample PCA82506-3, free of exsolved augite, was studied by in situ high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The sample, monoclinic P2₁/c, was annealed up to 1,093°C to induce a phase transition from P2₁/c to C2/c symmetry. The variation with increasing temperature of the lattice parameters and of the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, present only in the P2₁/c phase) showed a displacive phase transition P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _Tr = 944°C, first order in character. The Fe–Mg exchange kinetics was studied by ex situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction in a range of temperatures between the closure temperature of the Fe–Mg exchange reaction and the transition temperature. Isothermal disordering annealing experiments, using the IW buffer, were performed on three crystals at 790, 840 and 865°C. Linear regression of ln k _D versus 1/T yielded the following equation: ln k_\textD = - 3717( ±416)/T(K) + 1.290( ±0.378);    (R² = 0.988) \ln \,k_{\text{D}} = - 3717( \pm 416)/T(K) + 1.290( \pm 0.378);\quad (R^{2} = 0.988) . The closure temperature (T _c) calculated using this equation was ∼740(±30)°C. Analysis of the kinetic data carried out taking into account the e.s.d.'s of the atomic fractions used to define the Fe–Mg degree of order, performed according to Mueller’s model, allowed us to retrieve the disordering rate constants C ₀ K _dis⁺ for all three temperatures yielding the following Arrhenius relation: ln( C₀ K_\textdis ⁺ ) = ln K₀ - Q/(RT) = 20.99( ±3.74) - 26406( ±4165)/T(K);    (R² = 0.988) \ln \left( {C_{0} K_{\text{dis}}^{ + } } \right) = \ln \,K_{0} - Q/(RT) = 20.99( \pm 3.74) - 26406( \pm 4165)/T(K);\quad (R^{2} = 0.988) . An activation energy of 52.5(±4) kcal/mol for the Fe–Mg exchange process was obtained. The above relation was used to calculate the following Arrhenius relation modified as a function of X _Fe (in the range of X _Fe = 0.20–0.50): ln( C₀ K_\textdis ⁺ ) = (21.185 - 1.47X_\textFe ) - \frac(27267 - 4170X_\textFe )T(K) \ln \left( {C_{0} K_{\text{dis}}^{ + } } \right) = (21.185 - 1.47X_{\text{Fe}} ) - {\frac{{(27267 - 4170X_{\text{Fe}} )}}{T(K)}} . The cooling time constant, η = 6 × 10⁻¹ K⁻¹ year⁻¹ calculated on the PCA82506-3 sample, provided a cooling rate of the order of 1°C/min consistent with the extremely fast late cooling history of the ureilite parent body after impact excavation.  相似文献